Editor’s note: Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to return to the lineup for the Bucks against the Celtics, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. Antetokounmpo hasn’t played since Jan. 23 when he injured his calf.
The spread for this game moved from Celtics -7.5 to Celtics -4.5 after the news. The total rose from 215.5 to 217.5.
We’re going to be on Jayson Tatum watch with the Celtics for the next few weeks, but the No. 2 team in the East still has business on the court, whether Tatum is out there or not.
The Celtics are in Milwaukee for a game against the Bucks Monday night after playing the 76ers at home Sunday. The Bucks are hoping to get their star back as Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to rehab his calf injury.
Those absences and the schedule make this game an interesting one to handicap, but some trends can help steer NBA bettors in the right direction.
The Celtics live by the 3-pointer, attempting more than 42 shots from deep per game, which is the third-most in the NBA.
When they hit, it can feel like an avalanche for some teams, as the Nets found out this weekend. When they don’t hit, though, it can be tough to watch because the Celtics won’t stop shooting.
After a night of great shooting, variance tends to swing things the other way for Boston.
They’ve hit 20 or more 3s 13 times this season, and in seven of the games that followed a hot shooting night, they were cold from deep. For a team that generates most of its points from beyond the arc, that will be an issue regardless of the opponent.
Defensively, the Celtics are consistent every night. Jaylen Brown is one of the league’s best two-way players, but their entire team is full of scrappy role players who make every possession laborious for their opponents.
It is a big reason why the Celtics have the seventh-best defense in the NBA this season, allowing just 113 points per 100 possessions.
That stout defense, their high variance shooting, and the fact that the Celtics and Bucks ranked 30th and 24th, respectively, in pace have me leaning toward the Under in this game.
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The trends point to that outcome, too.
Celtics games go under the total 62.7 percent of the time (37-22), which is the highest rate in the league. The Bucks aren’t far behind with 56.9 percent of their games going under the total (33-25).
On the second night of a back-to-back, the Under is 8-2 in Celtics games. Let’s hope for tired legs on Monday night.
The Play: Under 215.5 (-110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.